Bet on When Budget Reconciliation Bill Will Become Law: 80 Percent of Gambling Public Still Thinks By July 5

Republican leaders in the House were busy Wednesday trying to win over some final holdouts on President Donald Trump’s tax and spending cuts package — determined to seize momentum from a hard-fought vote in the Senate while essentially daring members to defy their party’s leader and vote against it.

“The American people gave us a clear mandate, and after four years of Democrat failure, we intend to deliver without delay,” the top four House GOP leaders said Tuesday after the bill passed the Senate 51-50, thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tiebreaking vote.

It’s a risky gambit, one designed to meet Trump’s demand for a July 4 finish. Republicans have struggled mightily with the bill nearly every step of the way this year, often succeeding by only one vote. Their House majority stands at just 220-212, leaving little room for defections. 

Those at the Kalshi prediction market give the bill an 80% chance of becoming law by July 5 and a 90% chance of this happening by August 1.  Just shy of $410,000 in volume has come in on this market thus far. 

Some Republican holdouts are beginning to change their tune a bit entering Thursday. 

Rep. Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, was one of two House Republicans to oppose the earlier version of the bill passed by the House in May, citing deficit-spending concerns. But he said Wednesday he would support the more expensive Senate-passed bill.

“This bill isn’t perfect, but it’s the best we’ll get & includes major wins,” he wrote on the social platform X, citing border security, a “pro-growth tax policy,” Medicaid work requirements and more — most of which were part of the initial House bill.

- The Associated Press was used for this article